| Convective Outlook: Mon 21 Mar 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 21 Mar 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 22 Mar 2022
ISSUED 12:19 UTC Mon 21 Mar 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
As a weak thermal plume drifts north/northwestwards on Monday night from France across the English Channel into southern Britain, forecast profiles reveal some modest instability atop a warm nose with the potential for elevated convection to develop and bring the chance of a few high-based (~4,000ft) showers. Lightning activity is questionable given the relatively shallow depth of convection, although most of what little CAPE that is available will be largely concentrated within the mixed-phase region and so a few odd strikes cannot be completely ruled out, but the risk overall is deemed quite low. Rainfall may also partially evaporate in the dry near-surface layers, leading to virga.
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