| Convective Outlook: Wed 23 Mar 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 23 Mar 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 24 Mar 2022
ISSUED 06:54 UTC Wed 23 Mar 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
The UK continues to sit on the periphery of an upper high cell on Wednesday, initially centred over Poland but drifting towards northern Italy through the forecast period. The mid/lower troposphere will become increasingly unstable to surface heating through the day, yielding a few hundred J/kg by the afternoon. The light onshore flow in eastern Britain will aid in low-level moisture here, although as was the case on Tuesday 2m dewpoints will likely be lower than some high-resolution model expectations due to a deeply mixed boundary layer. Nonetheless, there is scope for a few isolated showers to develop during the afternoon and early evening aided by low-level convergence and orographic forcing, with high cloud bases (~4,500ft). The risk appears greatest over NE Scotland/Aberdeenshire, and here a couple of isolated lightning strikes may just about be possible, but the risk overall is considered rather low.
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