VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 31 Mar 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 01 Apr 2022

ISSUED 21:22 UTC Wed 30 Mar 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A disrupting upper trough will slide down the North Sea and across SE England on Thursday, the associated cold pool aloft yielding a few hundred J/kg CAPE in response to SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Numerous showers are likely near North Sea coasts initially, including a more organised feature sliding southwestwards across East Anglia and SE England, but additional showers are likely to develop inland through the day as surface heating lifts temperatures to values similar to SSTs. Forecast profiles are quite dry with a tropopause around 500hPa, which should present some crisp convection against deep blue skies. There is some reasonable speed shear to aid some slight tilting of updrafts/cell longevity, especially around the periphery of the upper low (so focussed in a swathe from Yorks/Lincs across the Midlands to SW England) while the more substantial instability will be located towards East Anglia and SE England under the cold pool aloft. Therefore the "sweet spot" for CAPE/shear overlap may be a zone from, say, The Wash down across the south and east Midlands to Wiltshire/Dorset/Hampshire, and here the lightning risk may be marginally higher.