| Convective Outlook: Tue 05 Apr 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Apr 2022
ISSUED 06:56 UTC Tue 05 Apr 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
During Tuesday daytime, the risk of lightning (albeit rather low) will be confined largely to Shetland associated with showers in the vicinity. During Tuesday night, an approaching upper trough from the Atlantic and associated cool air aloft will steepen lapse rates and yield a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Behind the rather weak cold front, bands of showers/showery rain will track eastwards across Ireland and into western Britain towards the end of the night. There may be a longer spell of rain that moves over southern Ireland/Celtic Sea towards Wales in the vicinity of a shortwave trough. Given rather moist profiles and shallow depth of convection, the lightning risk is considered quite low, but reasonable speed shear at least may offer the potential for some gusty winds (40-50mph).
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