Convective Outlook: Fri 08 Apr 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 Apr 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 Apr 2022

ISSUED 07:20 UTC Fri 08 Apr 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough and substantial cold pool will slide southeastwards across the UK/Ireland during Friday daytime, coinciding with peak daytime heating. In a setup similar to this time last week, numerous showers are likely to develop in response to diurnal heating. However, the boundary layer is likely to become deeply mixed, with dewpoints falling to -6C or lower in places, resulting in rather high cloud bases and a lot of virga/evaporation of precipitation before reaching the ground. The inverted-V profile is favourable for particularly gusty winds around showers, which will likely be the main hazard. Despite strong deep layer shear on the forward side of the upper trough, in a zone from SE Wales across the Midlands to East Anglia/Lincolnshire, the strongest flow is likely to be above the cloud tops and therefore unable to be utilised to aid cell organisation. Therefore, most cells will exhibit pulse-mode characteristics with small hail, a few isolated lightning strikes possible just about anywhere. Central/eastern England may be the most favoured area for lightning, aided by developing low-level convergence, slightly better low-level moisture later in the afternoon and around 10-15kts cloud-layer shear.