Convective Outlook: Wed 13 Apr 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 13 Apr 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 14 Apr 2022

ISSUED 06:54 UTC Wed 13 Apr 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

The remnants of an upper trough will be located over Britain on Wednesday, but gradually relaxing away to the northeast as heights rise from the southwest and more ridging develops across Ireland and western Britain. Nonetheless, assuming early low cloud and fog disperse reasonably quickly then diurnal heating will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE (modified 00z Camborne suggests 700 J/kg with T/Td of 17C/10C) and as such scattered showers will develop, largely focussed along distinct convergence zones such as peninsula convergence from SW England - M4 corridor - Home Counties, and Pembrokeshire - SW Midlands - The Wash. 

Despite the strongest flow aloft over Ireland on the rear side of the upper trough/forward side of upper ridge, here subsidence will result in much shallower convection and therefore weak cloud layer shear. Convection will be increasingly deep towards eastern Britain, in closer proximity to the cold pool aloft. Here, some residual flow aloft on the forward side of the upper trough will also result in 15-25kts cloud layer shear, and this could aid some slight organisation/longevity of cells (if they can grow tall enough). That said, CAPE is likely to be quite skinny due to being stretched over a rather deep layer, but these parameters may just about be sufficient for a few odd lightning strikes and hail - more especially Lincolnshire into Cambridgeshire and Norfolk, and perhaps moreso as they drift offshore and briefly encounter better low-level convergence along the coast due to the development of a sea breeze. Such slack conditions with low-level convergence can aid the development of a few funnel clouds, again this especially enhanced near North Sea coasts. Showers will slowly fade during the evening.