Convective Outlook: Mon 18 Apr 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Apr 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Apr 2022

ISSUED 05:28 UTC Mon 18 Apr 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

One upper trough axis will clear northern Scotland during Monday morning, with an upper low near western Scotland, followed by a more substantial extending upper trough approaching Ireland during the afternoon, evening and night, eventually disrupting with a cut-off upper low developing near SW Ireland on Monday night and drifting southeastwards across the Celtic Sea. Despite all of this activity, much of the UK/Ireland will be under subsiding air that is fairly warm aloft and not overly unstable. Some relatively shallow convection may allow scattered showers to develop, generally deepest further west (e.g. Ireland) where subsidence is less pronounced and air is coldest aloft. However, the overall lightning risk is considered rather low. Arguably the greatest potential exists with the cut-off upper low near SW Ireland on Monday night and then across the Celtic Sea during the early hours of Tuesday.