Convective Outlook: Tue 19 Apr 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 Apr 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 Apr 2022

ISSUED 06:46 UTC Tue 19 Apr 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will disrupt over Ireland on Tuesday, with a cut off low rapidly advancing southwards to be centred over Iberia by Tuesday night. Profiles across much of the UK/Ireland are unstable to surface heating, with a few hundred J/kg CAPE. It is likely numerous showers will develop, some heavy and slow-moving and aided by low-level convergence zones, but generally limited in depth by subsiding air aloft with most cloud tops below 13,000ft. This will generally prevent convection from utilising the stronger flow above 600hPa, and so the overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment suggests there may not be much in the way of lightning at all. The best potential may exist over Ireland where colder air aloft will allow for deeper convection, albeit in a weak shear environment. Showers may even morph into some longer spells of showery rain across parts of the Midlands, West Country and Cen S England, but will slowly decay through the evening/night hours. There may be the chance for a couple of funnel clouds near convergence zones.