Convective Outlook: Tue 03 May 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 03 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 04 May 2022

ISSUED 05:59 UTC Tue 03 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge over Ireland and southern Britain will weaken slightly on Tuesday with subtle cooling aloft. That said, a notable inversion will exist at 650-700mb which will generally cap convection to below 10,000ft. The greatest risk of heavy showers developing will be across Wales, southwest England, the West Country, central southern England and perhaps eastern Ireland as areas of low-level convergence evolve, enhanced by sea breezes. Convection will probably reach the inversion and spread out, so it may be quite cloudy at times. Given the rather shallow nature, and much of the convective layer below the mixed phase region, the risk of lightning is considered very low. However, the relatively low cloud bases in places in the vicinity of convergence zones suggests the chance of a few funnel clouds. Showers will probably morph into areas of showery rain during the evening and night, drifting eastwards across the Midlands towards East Anglia. Meanwhile, areas of rain spreading into northern Ireland, western Scotland and down over the Irish Sea on Tuesday evening and night may contain some weak mid-level instability, but this also deemed a very low risk of lightning.