Convective Outlook: Thu 05 May 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 05 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 06 May 2022

ISSUED 06:54 UTC Thu 05 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper ridge gradually extends across southern Britain from the southwest, but with a fairly strong southwesterly flow aloft across Ireland and Scotland. The forecast evolution is not overly clear with regards to Ireland and Northern Ireland. The GFS has consistently signalled unstable profiles with several hundred J/kg CAPE (although this has been gradually reducing on recent runs), but a closer inspection of forecast profiles in other models reveals a notable cap at 750mb, strongest near SE Ireland and weakest towards the NW. GFS dewpoints are also broadly 1-2C higher than most other guidance. It is plausible scattered showers will develop in parts of Ireland, but the most likely scenario is they are rather shallow in height and hence the lightning potential is very low (were the GFS solution to verify then a few thunderstorms would be possible, but this seems rather unlikely at the moment).