Convective Outlook: Tue 10 May 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 10 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 11 May 2022

ISSUED 07:06 UTC Tue 10 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave upper trough resides to the west of the British Isles on Tuesday, but in close enough proximity for cold air aloft to overspread Scotland and Northern Ireland in particular. Despite increased instability, especially aided by diurnal heating inland, forecast profiles are rather dry aloft suggesting convection may be restricted to below 18,000ft. The best overlap of a few hundred J/kg CAPE and 20-30kts cloud-layer shear, especially during the day, will be from Northern Ireland and across southern Scotland, on the northern flank of a strong mid/upper troposphere jet stream. Showers will likely be numerous across many northern and western parts of the British Isles, although fairly skinny CAPE and relatively shallow depth suggests lightning for the most part will be fairly isolated - with the greatest chance from Northern Ireland across southern and eastern Scotland. Towards the evening and night, the upper trough axis will approach from the west, and so there may be an increasing chance of a few sporadic strikes near western Scotland during the overnight period - although confidence on much in the way of lightning is too low to warrant a SLGT.