Convective Outlook: Mon 16 May 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 16 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 17 May 2022
ISSUED 06:51 UTC Mon 16 May 2022
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
At 06z Monday, an instability axis extended from Merseyside to East Anglia as a tongue of relatively high 850hPa Theta-W continues to sporadically destabilise in the vicinity of a marked trough lifting northeastwards. As such, pockets of showery rain are likely along this zone, and a few elevated thunderstorms continue to be a possibility - earlier CAM guidance had suggested a relative uptick in activity for a while on Monday morning in eastern England, for example. This instability plume will slowly weaken and clear to the North Sea, and thereafter the attention largely turns the post-trough environment as increasing amounts of sunshine and resultant surface heating will yield 400-900 J/kg CAPE beneath a zone of cool mid-levels stretching from Northern Ireland/north of Ireland across to the Midlands and northern England.