Convective Outlook: Thu 19 May 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 19 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 20 May 2022

ISSUED 06:44 UTC Thu 19 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A shortwave will lift northeast across England on Thursday morning, engaging with the lingering high Theta-W plume (14-15C at 850hPa) over E/SE Britain. This may continue to encourage elevated showers/weak thunderstorms to develop in eastern parts of East Anglia and Kent/East Sussex, before eventually pulling away to the North Sea by midday. A renewed pulse of Theta-W advection is likely late on Thursday night from France towards SE England, however current thinking is any lightning activity will remain over France before 06z Friday (when this forecast period ends).

Meanwhile a few isolated showers may develop in central/western Ireland on Thursday afternoon, but forecast profiles suggest these will be rather shallow in depth and lightning is rather unlikely. Perhaps a slightly higher chance of a few isolated lightning strikes late in the night as profiles moisten and the convective layer deepens near/behind the approaching occlusion.