Convective Outlook: Thu 02 Jun 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 Jun 2022

ISSUED 06:44 UTC Thu 02 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will migrate slowly southeastwards across Ireland on Thursday, the associated cold pool yielding a few hundred J/kg CAPE across northern England, Scotland and much of Ireland/Northern Ireland. Areas of showery rain will turn increasingly convective in nature through the day, with other scattered showers developing elsewhere. Forecast profiles appear to be either rather moist (in the case of Ireland) or somewhat limited in convective depth - and in either case, this will tend to limit the lightning potential. As such the risk in any one location is considered rather low, but a few isolated strikes may just about be possible - probably most likely in Ireland where convection will be somewhat deeper, and a low-end SLGT has been tentatively introduced.

During the evening and night, showers across Wales, northern England and southern Scotland will continue to become more numerous and eventually grow upscale into a broader area of showery rain as areas of PVA occur on the forward side of the upper low. This will maintain a lightning risk overnight in these areas, perhaps most likely N Wales/NW England and adjacent portions of the Irish Sea.

Elsewhere a subtle shortwave will lift northeastwards over the English Channel environment during the overnight period, coinciding with warm advection over the area. There may be a few elevated showers that develop over the English Channel and drift into portions of southern England during the night as the mid-levels moisten, although the overall shallow depth of convection and generally weak CAPE suggests probably little in the way of lightning.