Convective Outlook: Fri 03 Jun 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 03 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 04 Jun 2022

ISSUED 07:22 UTC Fri 03 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will continue to linger in the vicinity of the Irish Sea throughout Friday, the associated cold pool yielding 300-700 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating across Wales and Ireland. Areas of showery rain over the Irish Sea, NW England, SW Scotland and N Wales will tend to break up through the day, with scattered heavy showers developing in places. A few thunderstorms seem possible, although the exact evolution is a little uncertain but during the day N + W Wales is probably most favoured. Additional showers may develop through the evening and night across S + W Wales, SW England into S + SE Ireland, and a low-end SLGT has been included for this risk.

Elsewhere, the attention overnight may also turn to the English Channel as advection of a relatively high Theta-W airmass (>14C at 850hPa) occurs from France into southern England. Forecast cross sections reveal scope for isentropic upglide beneath forced ascent aloft as one or more shortwaves run northwards on the forward side of the Celtic Sea upper low. The net result is an increasing risk of elevated showers and thunderstorms affecting the Channel Islands and portions of the English Channel, although the exact evolution is unclear (not least because of the bifurcating flow) and hence the broad risk extends from east Devon to SE Kent - the lack of confidence precludes the introduction of a MDT at this stage.