Convective Outlook: Tue 07 Jun 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2022

ISSUED 06:26 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Diurnal heating will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers likely to develop (perhaps also aided by sea breeze convergence). However, forecast profiles reveal the depth of convection will be relatively shallow/largely below the mixed phase region, and so the risk of lightning is considered rather low. There are hints of a subtle shortwave running eastwards from Cen S England at 12z to SE England by 15z and the associated cooling aloft with this feature may allow for some slightly deeper convection, and hence better lightning potential. Given the overlap of this feature with diurnal heating and convection development, this would probably favour the London/Kent/Essex/Hertfordshire area. NW Ireland may also be another focal point for some heavier showers and small risk of lightning.


Later in the day, a band of frontal rain will move into SW Ireland and SW England, within a humid airmass with 850hPa Theta-W >14C. This broad area of showery rain may produce a sporadic lightning strikes through the evening and night as it continues to migrate northeastwards across Ireland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales - although the risk in any one location is rather low.