Convective Outlook: Fri 10 Jun 2022 |
|
What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 10 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 11 Jun 2022
ISSUED 21:59 UTC Thu 09 Jun 2022
br> br>ISSUED BY: Chris
A deep area of low pressure in the Atlantic, and associated large-scale upper trough will provide positive vorticity advection and a strong southwesterly flow across Ireland and Scotland on Friday.
Scattered showers are expected to be ongoing from the morning with insolation increasing SBCAPE to around 500 J/kg by the early afternoon across Ireland (300 j/kg in Scotland). Showers will turn heavy and potentially thundery into the early afternoon, with the highest risk of lightning across central and northeastern parts of Ireland. Unidirectional deep layer shear across Ireland at this time could be approaching 50kts with low level shear increasing to near 30kts, leading to the potential of some sustained updrafts, and the small risk of a tornado or two given the strongly sheared environment. Convective gusts could also be on the order of 50-55mph with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms, and small hail around 1cm in diameter is possible.