Compared with yesterday instability and shear will be weaker with CAPE values only reaching 200-400J/kg across parts of northeastern Ireland and SW Scotland and deep layer shear of only around 20-30kts, therefore the lightning risk is pretty minimal, highest across northeastern parts of Ireland and southern Scotland during the afternoon and early evening. The main risk today will be gusty winds may be associated with showers that do develop, with some gusts of 40-45mph possible. A tight pressure gradient will produce some strong non-convective gusts across northwestern Scotland on the order of 50-60mph near the northwest coast and over higher ground.