Convective Outlook: Fri 24 Jun 2022
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2022

ISSUED 21:52 UTC Thu 23 Jun 2022


A slow moving area of low pressure centred near Ireland will help to bring an unsettled day across much of Britain and Ireland although drier in the southeast. A trough will move northeastwards across central and northern England and SE Scotland during the afternoon and this will help to trigger some heavy showers in the afternoon, some perhaps turning thundery. 500-700 J/kg of CAPE is possible by the afternoon across N/Cen and NE England and this combined with some weak surface convergence will likely aid in some heavier showers, with a few producing some lightning. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are relatively weak so convective updrafts may not be all that long lasting, however as they will be slow moving some locally heavy downpours are possible. 

Elsewhere there is an isolated risk of lightning associated with an east northeastward advancing cold front across Ireland and into western Britain during the afternoon, although many southeastern areas will end up staying dry.