VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 26 Jun 2022
ISSUED 09:21 UTC Sat 25 Jun 2022
ISSUED BY: Chris
An upper trough an associated surface low will be situated across Ireland and into western portions of Britain and help to produce a blustery and showery south to southwesterly flow during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain an showers are expected widely across Ireland and into western Britain during the day, with areas further east away from the low centre staying drier.
The main risk of lightning today will be across Wales, NW England and S Scotland through the afternoon. Positive vorticity advection and steepening lapse rates will help to destabilise the atmosphere in these areas and with some sunshine, CAPE values of 500-800J/kg are expected through the afternoon leading to showers turning heavy with the risk of thunder. Some modest deep layer shear (35-45kts) will allow some updrafts to be more sustained and perhaps lead to the risk of some small hail and gusty winds, although the chief hazard will be heavy downpours.
Elsewhere, with low pressure around scattered showers or embedded convection nearer the low centre will give the very low end risk of a few lightning strikes.