Convective Outlook: Sun 26 Jun 2022
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 26 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 27 Jun 2022

ISSUED 05:23 UTC Sun 26 Jun 2022


Low pressure will move slowly northwards across Ireland towards western Scotland during the day with an area of showery rain spreading across much of Ireland into Scotland, Wales and parts of NW and SW England during the day. Some embedded convection is possible within this area with an isolated lightning strike possible. 

The main risk for lightning will be across central and eastern Ireland as rain clears to the north and east and some sunshine develops. Unstable air across Ireland with steepening lapse rates and CAPE values of 500-600 J/kg will develop into the afternoon in response to diurnal heating and turn showers heavy with the risk of SLIGHT risk of lightning. This zone will shift north and east through the day, perhaps into some of southwestern Scotland. Deep layers shear is weak, so updrafts will not be long lasting therefore the main risk today will be from localised flooding. Slightly greater low-level shear is forecast for far northeastern Ireland and SW Scotland, and in those areas a few funnels are possible.