|Convective Outlook: Tue 28 Jun 2022|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 Jun 2022
ISSUED 06:07 UTC Tue 28 Jun 2022br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Longwave upper trough will drift slowly eastwards across Ireland and western Britain on Tuesday, while a shortwave lifts northeastwards during Tuesday daytime. Strong mid/upper tropospheric flow will create a strongly-sheared environment, and as such there may be broken line segments on the rear side of the frontal rain that crosses Ireland during the morning hours. Forecast profiles appear to be very moist with weak instability, suggesting the lightning risk is rather low - but a brief spell of heavy rain/gusty winds will be possible. The front should clear reasonably quickly to allow sufficient heating of the residual moist airmass (dewpoints 11-14C) over Ireland, yielding 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE across central/northern areas. Bands of heavy showers will likely develop and migrate northeastwards during the afternoon and evening hours. Given modest instability and 30-50kts 0-6km shear, a few thunderstorms seem plausible - perhaps especially close to the north coast and then points offshore towards W Scotland. A couple of fairly active storms, with tops perhaps exceeding 21,000ft, may be possible given the magnitude of shear compensating for limited CAPE.