Convective Outlook: Sat 02 Jul 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 Jul 2022

ISSUED 07:22 UTC Sat 02 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will slide southeastwards across England on Saturday, with some embedded convective elements at times - however, in general the convection is likely too shallow for much in the way of lightning. Scattered showers will follow behind the front, but for the most part ELTs will be -15C or warmer and so while an odd isolated lightning strike is possible the risk in any one location is fairly low. The main exception is NE Scotland where deep convection could potentially reach up to around 25,000ft for a time during the afternoon hours, and so there may be one or two thunderstorms here in the vicinity of a small surface low and associated low-level convergence (aided also by onshore breeze). Shear will be rather weak, so showers/storms will tend to pulse before the risk diminishes by late afternoon. Slow storm motion could result in local surface water flooding, while vorticity stretching by updrafts could allow a few funnel clouds to occur.