Convective Outlook: Sat 16 Jul 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 16 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 17 Jul 2022

ISSUED 11:29 UTC Sat 16 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

While the risk is very low in any one location, a stout EML will advect northeastwards through Saturday evening and night across the Irish Sea and adjacent portions of Britain and Ireland. Gradual moistening of the mid-upper troposphere above this EML in the vicinity of a subtle shortwave cresting the northern periphery of the western Europe ridge may be sufficient to generate some very high-based convection during the overnight period, and hence a low risk of a few lightning strikes. The risk (albeit very low) appears greatest in the northern half of the LOW threat area.