Convective Outlook: Mon 18 Jul 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2022
ISSUED 09:05 UTC Mon 18 Jul 2022
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
An exceptionally hot, dry airmass covers many parts of the British Isles on Monday beneath a substantial upper ridge. The deep, mixed layer produces very steep mid-level lapse rates, however the lack of any substantial forcing precludes any significant convection, however subtle moistening of the mid/upper troposphere will be sufficient for pockets of incredibly high-based (15,000ft) elevated convection almost anywhere during this forecast period. As such, random isolated showers will be possible, but virtually all rain may not reach the ground, and the depth of convection may not be sufficient for much in the way of lightning - but the risk is non-zero. Perhaps the greatest risk (albeit still very low) is across Wales, the Midlands into northern England during the afternoon and evening hours.