VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 23 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2022

ISSUED 09:03 UTC Sat 23 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A positively tilted upper trough will approach the British Isles from the Atlantic on Saturday. On the forward side, a fairly humid airmass will be advected in the vicinity of several fronts. As such, there is a broad area at risk of a few lightning strikes through this forecast period - the greatest risk is likely Northern Ireland into SW / W / C Scotland during the evening hours where an active cluster of thunderstorms could evolve for a time, before morphing into a rather messy mixture of convective and dynamic rainfall. Forecast profiles suggest some fairly deep elevated convection is possible, however if surface-based thunderstorms can evolve in Northern Ireland then the environment with strong speed shear and backed low-level winds (and as also suggested by some CAM guidance) may be supportive for a supercell which could produce some marginally-severe hail and 40-50mph wind gusts. Tentatively introduced a SVR, but it should be stressed the probability of marginally-severe hail in any one location is very low and this is a conditional risk rather than a certainty.