Convective Outlook: Sun 24 Jul 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 25 Jul 2022

ISSUED 08:06 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Initially positively-tilted upper trough will swing across the British Isles on Sunday with cool air aloft overspread a humid low-level airmass yielding 500-900 J/kg CAPE across portions of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland in an environment with reasonably strong speed shear. Showers/areas of showery rain over Ireland and Northern Ireland will gradually intensify into Sunday afternoon, with a few thunderstorms likely. Northern and eastern portions of Ulster are most favoured due to the longer land track and time for thunderstorms to mature/grow upscale into a cluster, these then exiting across the North Channel and into SW Scotland - where a marginal MDT has been included. There is the potential for 40-60mm to fall in parts of SW Scotland, perhaps even locally above 80mm, and as such a SVR has been introduced for the risk of surface water flooding. The strongest storms may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

Additional showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will be possible in NE Scotland and Caithness during the afternoon, drifting offshore across the Moray Firth. Also, portions of NE/E England may need monitoring for the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the stalled cold front, although it may be that any thunderstorms that do occur (if any) tend to intensify as they drift offshore and across the North Sea. Finally, historically there had been hints of an uptick in possible elevated convection along/ahead of the cold front in parts of SE England and East Anglia coast on Sunday night, although that suggestion has now reduced in recent model guidance.