Convective Outlook: Mon 25 Jul 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 25 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 26 Jul 2022

ISSUED 06:10 UTC Mon 25 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough covers the British Isles on Monday morning, but exits to the North Sea through the day. Forecast profiles suggest that it will not be overly cold aloft, in fact the upper troposphere appears rather warm and dry and this will generally restrict the depth of any convection. The main focus will likely be along the southward advancing occlusion, initially bringing outbreaks of rain across Scotland in the morning but turning increasingly convective in nature as it drifts across southern Scotland and into northern England during the afternoon. Heavy showers are likely to develop along the wind shift boundary where low-level convergence is maximised, however the depth of convection may ultimately be too shallow for much (if any) lightning activity. The greatest risk appears to be SE Scotland into NE England where a low-end SLGT has been issued. Nonetheless, any intense cells - especially farther south where the boundary layer will be deeply mixed - could produce some rather gusty winds around 40-45mph and a notable drop in temperature.