Convective Outlook: Thu 18 Aug 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2022

ISSUED 08:23 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A few SMZ showers are likely in East Anglia / SE England on Thursday daytime, but probably too shallow for lightning. Meanwhile, a cold front may contain some pockets of stronger convection at times through the day and overnight as it migrates eastwards across all parts of the British Isles, with the very small risk of a few odd lightning strikes. Particular attention is given to SMZ showers that may develop over Northern Ireland / eastern Ireland on Thursday afternoon and spread northeastwards into Scotland/NW England during the late afternoon and evening - although the depth of convection may be somewhat limited, the strong speed shear in conjunction with up to 500 J/kg CAPE may be sufficient to produce one or two active cells for a time with squally winds - a very marginal SLGT has been issued, but confidence on much in the way of lightning is rather low. Further showers will spread into W Scotland and NW Ireland overnight, but relatively shallow in depth.