VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2022

ISSUED 06:44 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Pockets of deep convection may develop along a cold front clearing East Anglia and SE England on Friday morning as SMZ showers punch into the drier air aloft, especially as it exits across the North Sea and into the Continent where land and sea temperatures are >20C - however, model guidance has generally backed away from this potential over the UK on recent runs and so have refrained from introducing a SLGT. Meanwhile, a cold pool and shortwave will overspread Scotland, Northern Ireland and N + W Ireland with occasional scattered showers spreading inland from the Atlantic. Profiles reveal rather skinny CAPE but some reasonable speed shear, suggesting a few odd isolated lightning strikes may be possible - but the risk considered too low in any one location to justify a SLGT.