Some mixing of the boundary layer is anticipated across the S + E Midlands and East Anglia, resulting in slightly lower dewpoints which in conjunction with more capping which will probably prevent much in the way of surface-based convection from occurring. Later in the afternoon and during the evening hours a more substantial EML will advect from France/Belgium northwestwards into East Anglia and SE England. This, in conjunction with a cool mid/upper troposphere, will yield unstable profiles above the EML - but initially lacking in any noteworthy forced ascent given the upper trough displaced to the west. Therefore, theoretically elevated convection could develop at any time during the evening and overnight hours ahead of the cold front, but most model guidance suggests this is more likely after midnight when increasing convergence in the 800-850 hPa layer may encourage forced ascent to generate a few scattered elevated showers/thunderstorms, this perhaps most likely over/near East Anglia initially before eventually the risk extending further south down the convergence line across SE England. Later in the night, as the main upper trough axis begins to engage with the edge of the >18C 850hPa Theta-W plume, mass ascent is likely to result in a larger complex of thunderstorms over northern France, these then migrating NE/NNE-wards across the English Channel towards the Sussex and perhaps Kent coasts. The timing of this complex varies amongst model guidance, but any thunderstorms during the overnight period could be fairly active, and may train over similar areas giving a risk of locally high rainfall totals. Main uncertainty is the coverage of thunderstorms during this forecast period, but a MDT has been introduced where best multi-model consensus exists.