Convective Outlook: Fri 09 Sep 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 09 Sep 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 10 Sep 2022

ISSUED 07:20 UTC Fri 09 Sep 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low exits eastern Britain to the North Sea on Friday, providing another day of scattered showers courtesy of a cold pool aloft atop a humid low-level airmass. Diurnal heating and SSTs will yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE, and numerous showers will develop in the unstable environment. Forecast profiles reveal tall, skinny CAPE with weak shear - suggesting pulse-type mode primarily with the biggest concern local surface water flooding from slow-moving downpours that may train over similar areas. Some sporadic lightning is likely, perhaps most likely in eastern England aided by convergence zones here through the afternoon hours. Ridging and warming aloft will tend to limit the convective depth (and therefore lightning potential) over Ireland. Showers/storms will generally fade through the evening hours as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, but a few will likely persist overnight along some North Sea coastal counties. A few funnel clouds / spouts will be possible given the unstable environment and areas of enhanced low-level convergence.