Convective Outlook: Sat 10 Sep 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 10 Sep 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2022

ISSUED 06:48 UTC Sat 10 Sep 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low will shift eastwards on Saturday from the North Sea across central Europe to Belarus by 06z Sunday. Warming aloft will generally reduce the shower risk, but a few scattered showers are possible in eastern England, aided by some low-level convergence - however the depth of convection, for the most part, will be too shallow for much in the way of lightning. Any showers will fade during the evening, but after midnight outbreaks of showery rain will approach SW Ireland and the Scilly Isles from the Atlantic. Forecast profiles are saturated, but small pockets of mid-level instability could potentially allow odd isolated lightning strikes but the risk is considered very low in any one location.