Convective Outlook: Sun 11 Sep 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Sep 2022

ISSUED 08:18 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A humid airmass will expand across the British Isles on Sunday and Sunday night, accompanied by pulses of showery rain spreading erratically northwards across northern and western areas in particular. Some weak instability is likely at times, and may encourage some heavier convective rainfall to develop in places. Fairly saturated profiles will tend to suppress the buoyancy of lifted parcels, however a few isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. One area of interest might be SE Ireland and adjacent Celtic/Irish Sea on Sunday late afternoon and evening hours as dry mid/upper tropospheric air overspreads the northern periphery of a 16-18C 850hPa Theta-W plume. There may be an uptick in heavy convective rainfall in this area, and one or two thunderstorms may be possible - but low confidence precludes introducing any higher threat levels. Similarly, another corridor of interest may exist from Munster to northern Leinster and across to the Isle of Man in the vicinity of a 16-18C 850hPa Theta-W tongue.