Convective Outlook: Fri 30 Sep 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 30 Sep 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 Oct 2022

ISSUED 07:03 UTC Fri 30 Sep 2022

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deep area of low pressure in North Atlantic will push a very active cold front from west to east across all of Britain and Ireland through Friday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is possible, along with some squally showers on the back-edge of the cold front. CAPE values are fairly low, although reaching 300-500 J/kg through the Irish Sea and coastal parts of NW England and N Wales and therefore a SLIGHT risk has been issued for these areas. 


Otherwise significant shear will accompany the cold front as it spreads eastwards with 40-50kts in the low-levels, and combined the back edge convection on the front this will pose a low-end tornado risk as the front clears to the east. Straight line gusts of 45-55mph will be possible as well.