VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 Oct 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 19 Oct 2022

ISSUED 06:35 UTC Tue 18 Oct 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Much of Tuesday daytime will be fairly quiet under an upper ridge, but this will slowly eject eastwards across the North Sea during the overnight period. At the same time, an upper low anchored over the Atlantic to the southwest of Ireland will nudge ever-closer, with heights aloft falling over the British Isles and a series of shortwaves rotating around the main parent upper low. The net result is increasing warm advection aloft from western Europe into the British Isles as steering flow gradually backs, while a strengthening easterly flow maintains relatively cool air at low-levels. As such, isentropic upglide in conjunction with increasing forced ascent as a shortwave approaches is likely to contribute to the development of elevated convection during the mid/late evening and overnight period, initially over SW Ireland and the English Channel and southern counties of England, but migrating northwestwards through the night.