Convective Outlook: Tue 25 Oct 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 25 Oct 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 26 Oct 2022

ISSUED 06:40 UTC Tue 25 Oct 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging develops for a time over the British Isles on Tuesday, but then retreats to the North Sea during the evening and night hours as an upper trough - with lead impulse - swing northwards across Ireland during the overnight period. As a result, outbreaks of rain will slide northwards across Ireland and western Britain, especially later in the day and into the evening/night period as a series of fronts affect these areas. As the first shortwave engages with the first frontal wave/surface low, and a marked dry intrusion approaches from the south, there may be scope for some thunderstorms on the western flank of the main precipitation shield, largely offshore over the Atlantic but potentially close to SW / W Ireland. A second cold front will later race northeastwards across Ireland from midnight onwards, pushing into western Britain towards the end of the night. This will likely be marked by a strongly-forced band of convection, in a strongly-sheared environment with dry air aloft - and so there may also be some sporadic lightning associated with this activity too. In fact there may be scope for rather squally winds (potentially 50-60mph very locally) and perhaps a couple of isolated tornadoes with this activity - but unlike Sunday, coverage of damaging winds is expected to be far less and so have refrained from introducing a SVR at this stage.