VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 02 Nov 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 03 Nov 2022

ISSUED 06:48 UTC Wed 02 Nov 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

On the forward side of an Atlantic upper trough, an active cold front will migrate eastwards across Ireland into western Britain during Wednesday. While there is a slight wind veer along the front, it is not as significant (e.g. 90 degrees) as other squally cold fronts in the past. Nonetheless, strong forced ascent in the vicinity of a substantial dry intrusion will likely result in broken clusters of convection on the rear side of the main precipitation shield, potentially deep enough to produce some sporadic lightning. At the very least, squally winds are likely in places as higher momentum air aloft is brought down to the surface, strongest closer to coasts where there is less surface friction (such as southern Ireland and western coasts of Britain). The presence of a strong LLJ combined with WAA/backed low-level winds will result in strong low-level wind shear, posing the threat for a few isolated tornadoes. Convection will tend to be shallower with southern extent, and so the lightning risk may be somewhat lower towards S Wales/SW England, and here - as the front becomes nearly parallel to the steering flow - convection may become more organised into a longer LEWP type morphology towards the evening hours and overnight as it continues to track eastwards across southern Britain. There could be a slight uptick in lightning activity over the Channel and S/SE England overnight, but this aspect is uncertain given the potential for a frontal wave to develop a larger area of rain which may ultimately lead to reduced buoyancy/saturated profiles and therefore lower the lightning potential.