Convective Outlook: Fri 24 Mar 2023

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Mar 2023 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Mar 2023

ISSUED 07:35 UTC Fri 24 Mar 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low, that has generally dominated the pattern over the past few days, will finally drift eastwards on Friday afternoon, and then across the Scottish Borders region during the evening and night hours. The associated cold pool will cover the British Isles, leading to an unstable environment in conjunction with SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Longer spells of rain are likely to affect Scotland and portions of Ireland/Northern Ireland, while over England and Wales cells may be somewhat more discrete or organised into distinct SW-NE bands aided by some low-level confluence zones. There will likely be a messy combination of sea-driven showers advecting inland and additional development inland in response to surface heating through the day. The distribution of showers will probably subtly change from hour-to-hour as the mean steering flow shifts. Forecast soundings over parts of England and Wales yield 400-700 J/kg CAPE, reasonably dry air aloft and modest shear which should lead to a number of blustery showers, some producing sporadic lightning and hail. Showers will generally weaken in intensity during the latter half of the evening as daytime heating subsides.