Convective Outlook: Sat 25 Mar 2023

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 25 Mar 2023 - 05:59 UTC Sun 26 Mar 2023

ISSUED 08:27 UTC Sat 25 Mar 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

A weak upper ridge will drift eastwards across Britain during Saturday daytime, followed by an upper trough into Ireland during the overnight hours. Several slow-moving frontal boundaries will linger in places, one draped from SW Scotland southeastwards to eastern England, another from southern Ireland into SW England, providing the focus for showers/showery outbreaks of rain. There will also likely be showers in the post-frontal environment across SW England and the Channel Islands later in the night. The most intense cells may be capable of producing a few lightning strikes, but many places will likely remain void of lightning. Contemplated introducing a SLGT for parts of Cornwall/Devon and the western English Channel/Channel Islands for the early hours of Sunday, but some uncertainty over the exact shape of the surface low and wrap-around frontal rain which will impact the location of the deepest convection and therefore lightning potential.