Convective Outlook: Sat 15 Apr 2023

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Apr 2023 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Apr 2023

ISSUED 06:55 UTC Sat 15 Apr 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

Residual low-level moisture (Td 7-9C) beneath a disrupting upper trough will provide the focus for a few heavy showers by Saturday afternoon as low-level convergence zones develop. ELTs will be generally limited to -20C, so the somewhat shallow depth of convection combined with weak cloud-layer shear (strong flow above cloud tops) will limit the lightning risk but the odd isolated strike may just about be possible.