VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 14 May 2023 - 05:59 UTC Mon 15 May 2023

ISSUED 07:15 UTC Sun 14 May 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper ridge over southern and eastern Britain will slowly weaken on Sunday, as an upper low approaches northern Britain from the Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slide southeastwards across Scotland and Ireland/Northern Ireland, while surface troughing develops across eastern England in advance. Assuming fairly extensive fog and low cloud disperses, onshore breezes are likely to develop in southern and eastern England as diurnal heating lifts inland temperatures to 17-21C. As such, increasing low-level convergence and associated moisture pooling (Td 10-13C) may encourage a few heavy showers to develop during the afternoon and evening hours across eastern England, the Midlands and southern England, drifting slowly east/southeastwards. Forecast profiles suggest 10-15kts cloud-layer shear, but ELTs around -15C due to mid-level capping which suggests convection will be generally too shallow for much in the way of lightning, however the most intense cells in East Yorks / Lincs / Cambs / W Norfolk may just produce a few isolated lightning strikes. Enhanced convergence just inland from both the south and east coasts may be sufficient for a couple of brief funnel clouds.