Convective Outlook: Mon 15 May 2023

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 15 May 2023 - 05:59 UTC Tue 16 May 2023

ISSUED 06:10 UTC Mon 15 May 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough extending down the North Sea will graze eastern Britain on Monday, with PVA in the vicinity and a modest increase in instability due to surface heating providing the focus for scattered heavy showers across northern and eastern Britain, particularly enhanced by breeze convergence developing through the day. Despite 10-20kts cloud-layer shear, forecast profiles appear capped above 600hPa, and this will limit the potential for lightning. The greatest risk for a few isolated lightning strikes will probably be eastern Scotland and perhaps also NE England, especially as cells near the coast and drift offshore. The relatively dry and well-mixed boundary layer with inverted-V profiles suggest the potential for gusty winds near heavy showers, with gusts of 35-45mph possible.