Convective Outlook: Sun 21 May 2023
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 21 May 2023 - 05:59 UTC Mon 22 May 2023

ISSUED 07:14 UTC Sun 21 May 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

Surface heating of a moist low-level airmass over southern Ireland (Td 12-14C) combined with orographic forcing and increasing low-level convergence may allow a few heavy showers to develop during the mid-late afternoon and evening hours. However, mid-level capping (600hPa and above) will limit the depth of convection with the majority of (already limited) CAPE below the mixed-phase region and so the lightning risk is considered very low. Likewise, a few showers may develop over Cumbria/northern Pennines into central/southern Scotland. 

Of greater interest are developments over NW Germany, the Netherlands and out across the North Sea from late afternoon and through the evening and overnight hours. Clusters of very active thunderstorms are likely to develop here in a very unstable environment (>1,000 J/kg CAPE) with substantially veering wind profiles (northeasterly at the surface round to southwesterly in the upper troposhere). While this activity is unlikely to affect the UK directly, the warm advection regime will result in increasing instability spreading out across the southern North Sea above a cool boundary layer. As such, given a developing cut-off upper low lingering over eastern England through Sunday evening/night engaging with the western flank of this instability plume, there may be scope for scattered elevated showers to develop close to the east coast of England, although it is likely most lightning activity will remain offshore.