Convective Outlook: Thu 08 Jun 2023

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 08 Jun 2023 - 05:59 UTC Fri 09 Jun 2023

ISSUED 06:33 UTC Thu 08 Jun 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

As a broad upper low to the west of Biscay gradually approaches the British Isles from the southwest, strengthening southeasterly flow aloft will advect a tongue of high Theta-W (16C at 850hPa) from NW France, across the western English Channel and Celtic Sea along the leading edge of an occlusion. This zone will provide the focus for showery bursts of rain migrating northwestwards, passing closer to Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly during the evening/night hours where a few thunderstorms may be possible (but more especially further offshore). In addition, areas of AcCas drifting into East Anglia late in the night could produce a couple of high-based showers, but the risk of lightning is considered too low to warrant any highlighted areas.