Convective Outlook: Thu 22 Jun 2023

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 22 Jun 2023 - 05:59 UTC Fri 23 Jun 2023

ISSUED 06:47 UTC Thu 22 Jun 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

Beneath a cold pool drifting eastwards across the British Isles, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop in response to diurnal heating, aided by areas of low-level wind convergence. Weak flow aloft will result in slow-moving, pulse type/outflow dominant storms, and so the direction of travel may vary from place to place as daughter cells form on outflow generated by parent cells. The greatest risk of lightning appears to be across the Midlands and eastern England. Given the slow storm motions, local surface water flooding will be possible, while vorticity stretching by updrafts along CZs may allow a few funnel clouds to form. Showers/storms will slowly fade through the evening, but a few may persist until near midnight, especially across the Midlands and in Ulster. Overnight, showery rain will spread across Ireland/Northern Ireland and into western Scotland, with some embedded weak mid-level instability.