Convective Outlook: Fri 23 Jun 2023

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Jun 2023 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Jun 2023

ISSUED 06:46 UTC Fri 23 Jun 2023

ISSUED BY: Dan

Outbreaks of rain spreading across Ireland and into northern and western Britain on Friday may contain some embedded mid-level instability, and so a few odd lightning strikes may be possible locally. Slightly better cloud breaks may occur from around noon onwards across Ulster in particular, with surface heating then yielding a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered heavy showers may develop, eventually spreading northeastwards into SW Scotland, and may produce a few lightning strikes - perhaps more especially as they near the Ulster coast and drift offshore. Confidence on much in the way of lightning is low given forecast profiles suggest slight capping in the mid-levels may limit ELTs to -20C, but this may be offset to an extent by 20-30kts effective shear. Have refrained from introducing a SLGT due to low confidence. A few isolated heavy showers may also develop in eastern England/East Anglia for a time.