VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 May 2020

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Fri 01 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A strip of shear vorticity will stretch from eastern Ireland across Wales to SE England first thing on Saturday morning, but quickly pulling away as an upper trough axis over Scotland slides southwards across northern and eastern England during the day. This will provide the main focus for any deep convection, aided by increasing low-level convergence, resulting in a scattering of showers over southern Scotland across northern England into East Anglia. Given meagre CAPE (100-200 J/kg) and rather restricted depth of convection, the risk of lightning is considered rather low (10-15%). Some shear may exist, but much of this will be located above the cloud-bearing layer. Any showers that do form will fade during the evening as diurnal heating subsides.